學術研究
            陳先才:《“臺獨”風險》,九州出版社,2020年1月版。
            時間:2020-03-30 瀏覽次數:202

            民進黨2016年在臺灣地區重返執政后,關于“臺獨”風險的相關討論越來越多,其原因就在于人們對蔡英文執政下的兩岸關系深感憂慮和不安。蔡英文當局拒不接受“九二共識”,破壞了兩岸關系和平發展的政治基礎,從而使兩岸關系及臺海局勢的發展充滿極大的變數和隱患。本書剖析了“臺獨”的主張及其分離主義的本質,圍繞民進黨重返執政后的“臺獨”風險為主線,分析了“臺獨”風險的表現形式、類型劃分及其影響,并在此基礎上,分析了美國支持“臺獨”勢力的相關風險及其后果。本書認為,隨著中國大陸實力的顯著增強,大陸主導臺海局勢的能力大為增強,也從根本上抑制了“臺獨”勢力的冒險沖動,以及降低了美國介入臺海局勢的意愿。


            前 言·····························································································1


            第一章 兩岸風雨七十年····································································3

              第一節 海峽兩岸隔海對峙 ······························································3

              第二節 海峽兩岸長期對抗······························································7

              第三節 兩岸民間重啟交流···························································· 14


            第二章 何為“臺獨”?·································································· 20

              第一節 “臺獨”的出現及其主張····················································· 20

              第二節 “臺獨”的類型劃分··························································· 24

              第三節 “臺獨”的發展階段··························································· 31


            第三章 “臺獨”最新發展及其影響····················································· 47

              第一節 “臺獨”發展的最新態勢····················································· 47

              第二節 “臺獨”風險及社會影響····················································· 53

              第三節 未來“臺獨”勢力的發展趨向············································· 58


            第四章 美國打“臺灣牌”及其風險··················································· 63

              第一節 美國長期打“臺灣牌”························································ 63

              第二節 特朗普打“臺灣牌”的頻率升高·········································· 72

              第三節 美國頻打“臺灣牌”的風險················································ 76


            第五章 大陸為何反對“臺獨”?······················································ 79

              第一節 中華民族“大一統”思想根深蒂固······································· 79

              第二節 臺灣問題是中國的核心國家利益 ··········································82

              第三節 在中華民族偉大復興進程中實現國家統一······························ 85


            第六章 “臺獨”風險的表現形式························································ 88

              第一節 臺灣內部引發的風險························································· 88

              第二節 外部介入引發的風險 ·························································94

              第三節 兩岸互動引發的風險························································100


            第七章 臺海兩岸軍事對抗態勢························································104

              第一節 臺海軍事戰略對抗···························································104

              第二節 臺海軍事戰略對抗的外部推力············································108

              第三節 兩岸軍事實力對比態勢 ···················································· 111

              第四節 臺海軍事態勢的基本特征·················································· 116


            第八章 “臺獨夢”對撞“中國夢”·····················································121

              第一節 中國共產黨提出“中國夢”·················································121

              第二節 “臺獨夢”的困境·····························································128

              第三節 “中國夢”與“臺獨夢”的對撞···········································132


            第九章 “臺獨”風險的類型與危害····················································134

              第一節 低度風險·······································································134

              第二節 中度風險·······································································136

              第三節 重度風險·······································································139


            第十章 民共為何缺乏互信?···························································143

              第一節 為何沒有民共關系?························································143

              第二節 民共有哪些分歧?···························································145

              第三節 民共缺乏有效溝通管道·····················································147


            第十一章 美國為何靠不???···························································149

              第一節 臺灣民意為何不相信美國? ···············································149

              第二節 美國是靠譜的主嗎?························································151

              第三節 臺灣從來就不是美國的核心利益·········································156

              第四節 中國崛起降低美國介入的意愿············································159


            參考文獻·······················································································164

            后 記··························································································167


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